POLLS VARY WIDELY BUT MOST SHOW SLIGHT LEAD FOR FMLN

 

 

id: 196566

date: 3/12/2009 14:50

refid: 09SANSALVADOR210

origin: Embassy San Salvador

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination:

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000210

 

SIPDIS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019

TAGS: PGOV, KPLS, KDEM, ES

SUBJECT: POLLS VARY WIDELY BUT MOST SHOW SLIGHT LEAD FOR

FMLN

 

Classified By: Robert I. Blau, Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b)

and (d)

 

 1.  (C) Summary:  The majority of polls released before the

15-day ban on poll publication prior to the March 15 election

show (left-wing) Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front

(FMLN) presidential candidate Mauricio Funes leading

(conservative, pro-U.S.) Nationalist Republican Alliance

(ARENA) candidate Rodrigo Avila in a close race.  Polls

conducted in El Salvador are of varying quality and

methodological soundness, and some firms have political

affiliations that may influence their results.  Poloffs met

four polling firms and observed methodological differences

and some unsound practices.  The firms gave varied

explanations for the failure of many polling firms to predict

the outcome of San Salvador's January 18 municipal race, but

the number of voters bused in from outside San Salvador,

mentioned by several firms, may have been a factor.  End

Summary.

 

--------------------------------------

MOST POLLS SHOW FUNES WITH NARROW LEAD

--------------------------------------

 

2.  (C) Media outlets released a flurry of polls before El

Salvador entered the 15-day period prior to the March 15

presidential election, during which, by law, polls cannot be

published.  Most data show FMLN presidential candidate

Mauricio Funes slightly ahead in a close race.  The majority

of the polls reveal a narrow gap between the two candidates,

and several show a statistical tie (the percentage point

difference between the candidates is smaller than the margin

of error).  Two polls indicate that ARENA presidential

candidate Rodrigo Avila is ahead, and a few outliers show

Funes maintaining a double-digit lead over Avila.  A sizeable

amount of the electorate (approximately 12 to 20 percent)

remains undecided; the withdrawal of the (center-right)

Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the (right-wing,

opportunistic) National Conciliation Party (PCN) from the

race appears to have given ARENA a moderate boost.

 

Firm        Dates    ARENA  FMLN   Diff. Margin of

                                         Error

Borge       2/16-22  40.9   40.0   0.9   2.8 (stat. tie)

CID-Gallup  2/28-3/2 38.3   43.6   5.3   3.0

                            ----

CIOPS       2/20-22  48.9   50.5   1.6   2.8

                                         (stat.tie)

 

COP         2/11-15  29.6   37.5   7.9   2.0-2.5

                            ----

CS-Sondea   2/5-13   30.1   41.3  11.2   unknown

                            ----

Jabes       2/20-23  42.5   39.0   3.5   2.5

                     ----

LPG Datos   2/20-23  28.0   30.9   2.9   2.2

                            ----

Meba        2/20-22  41.5   44.5   3.0   2.9

                            ----

Mitofsky    Feb      40.1   40.8   0.7   unkn (stat. tie)

UCA-IUDOP   2/1-15   31.7   49.3  17.6   1.95

                            ----

Vox-Latina  2/8-13   28.5   48.6  20.1   3.7

                            ----

Note:  Leads outside of the margin of error are underlined.

 

-----------------------------------------

POLLS' RELIABILITY AND METHODOLOGY DIFFER

-----------------------------------------

 

3.  (C) The reliability and methodology used by the firms

conducting polls in El Salvador varies widely, which poloffs

confirmed when meeting with three universities and a

newspaper that conduct polls.  The wide variation in the

polls for the March 15 election can be largely explained by

differences in methodology and by the dates spanned by the

polling.  Meetings with La Prensa Grafica's LPG Datos,

Francisco Gavidia's Center of Public Opinion (COP), the

Technological University's Center of Public Opinion of the

Salvadoran Population (CIOPS), and the Central American

University's Institute of Public Opinion (IUDOP) revealed

that polling firms construct their samples differently, use

different wording and order in their questions, and employ

different methods (some of which did not appear to be

statistically sound) to reach out to respondents.  In

addition, the date of polls conducted in February is

important; polls conducted following the withdrawal of the

PDC and PCN and the decisions of the leaders of these parties

to endorse ARENA show a modest increase in Avila's numbers.

 

 

--------------------------------------------- ---

POLLING FIRMS' REPUTATIONS AND AFFILIATIONS VARY

--------------------------------------------- ---

 

4.  (C) Many of the firms operating in El Salvador are

contracted by newspapers, universities, and the political

parties, which affects how their results are presented and,

potentially, the firms' independence.  For example, both

presidential candidates claim that their internal polls show

them ahead.  CS-Sondea, which shows a double-digit lead for

Funes, is owned by a consultant of Funes', and conducts polls

for the candidate.  Vox Latina, which also shows a

double-digit Funes lead, is a Guatemalan firm contracted by

the FMLN.  Mitofsky, which shows a tie, works with

Telecorporacion Salvadorena (TCS), a right-leaning entity.

Borge and Asociados, which has a poor reputation regionally,

and Jabes Market Research conducted their recent polls

showing Avila slightly up on behalf of (right-wing) newspaper

El Diario de Hoy.  Double-digit leads for Funes in the

university polls may be the result of poor methodology and,

possibly, left-leaning slant.  On the other hand, CID-Gallup,

which shows Funes up by five points, is a prestigious and

reputable polling firm in Latin America.  CID-Gallup released

poll numbers prior to El Salvador's 2004 presidential

elections that were very close to the actual electoral

results.

 

--------------------------------------------- -

LPG DATOS' CANDID TAKE ON DIFFERENCES IN POLLS

--------------------------------------------- -

 

5.  (C) Edwin Segura of LPG Datos, which appeared to be the

most competent and responsible polling firm out of the four,

was frank about the difficulties in carrying out polls in El

Salvador and explained common methodological discrepancies.

Segura said that the poor can be difficult to access because

they live in dangerous areas, while the well-off are also

hard to access because they live in walled-off residences.

He lamented the difficulty in getting accurate demographic

data in El Salvador to use for building polling samples and

asserted that Salvadoran institutions often release incorrect

statistics.  Segura pointed out that several polling firms

are not working from the most recent 2007 census, and that

the firms use different rural-to-urban and male-to-female

proportions in their samples.  For example, he said that

Borge and Mitofsky use the 1992 census proportion of

rural-to-urban populations for their samples, while others

use the 2007 census figures, and LPG Datos uses its own

adjustment to the rural-to-urban proportion from the 2007

census.  Differences in rural-to-urban and male-to-female

proportions could cause the results to favor one party over

the other; according to some pollsters, ARENA draws support

from the rural poor and housewives, while FMLN voters tend to

be urban and male.

 

---------------------------------------------

POLLING FIRMS DESCRIBE QUESTIONABLE PRACTICES

---------------------------------------------

 

6.  (C) All of the firms admitted to some practices that

appeared methodologically unsound during the meetings, but

the universities accounted for the worst practices.

Francisco Armando Zepeda of CIOPS explained that the firm

attempted to reach wealthy voters by conducting polls at

places frequented by the well-off like commercial centers,

supermarkets, and gas stations; this method of sampling is

not random nor an accurate measure of income level.  Zepeda

also described how if his workers came to a house displaying

party propaganda that they would throw it out of the sample,

again creating a sample that is no longer random.  Jeannette

Aguilar of IUDOP appeared to lack confidence in IUDOP's poll

and confided that, although the poll shows a double-digit

lead, she thought the race would be close.

 

--------------------------------------------- -----

EXTERIOR VOTERS MAY HAVE THROWN SAN SALVADOR POLLS

--------------------------------------------- -----

 

7.  (C) Several firms attributed the failure of at least six

polling firms to accurately predict the outcome of San

Salvador,s mayoral race to votes from individuals residing

outside of the capital.  (Salvadorans vote by place of

registration, not by their current place of residence).

Segura said the disparity between the polls and the results

suggested some type of fraud or voter manipulation, but he

questioned the validity of the polling from IUDOP and CIOPS,

which was off by double digits.  Zepeda admitted that CIOPS

probably made a mistake in their sample and that some voters

changed their minds but asserted that voters from outside of

 

San Salvador also were a factor.  Elner Crespin of COP

pointed out that their polling matched results in key

municipal races besides San Salvador.  He said that survey

respondents attributed votes from outside San Salvador, the

ARENA candidate,s perceived competence, and the ARENA

metrobus proposal as top factors in the San Salvador outcome.

 

 

8.  (C) Comment:  Although Funes appears to have the edge in

credible poll numbers (CID-Gallup, LPG Datos), the race is

too close to call.  Given the disparities in polling

methodology and the apparent ideological bias of many of the

local firms, we will only be able to judge the accuracy of

the polling after the March 15 election.  Voter migration

within El Salvador may have thrown off the January 18 polling

data; voters returning home to vote on March 15 (mostly from

the U.S.) could similarly throw off the presidential election

polling.  End Comment.

BLAU

 

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