ARENA Rebels Hope to Return, Prepared to Go It Alone

id: 235414

date: 11/18/2009 16:31

refid: 09SANSALVADOR1071

origin: Embassy San Salvador

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination: 09SANSALVADOR1033

header:

VZCZCXYZ0020

RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #1071/01 3221631

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

R 181631Z NOV 09

FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0014

INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001071

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/18

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ES

SUBJECT: ARENA Rebels Hope to Return, Prepared to Go It Alone

REF: SAN SALVADOR 1033 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: RBlau, CDA, State, U.S. Embassy San Salvador; REASON:

1.4(B), (D)

1. (C) Summary: Leaders of the group of twelve (conservative) ARENA

breakaway Assembly Deputies, now called GANA, told PolCouns their

preferred option was to return to ARENA after sufficient leadership

changes (i.e., former President Cristiani relinquishes control)

took place.  They do not rule out forming a new party or joining an

existing party before 2012 legislative elections.  They expect

additional deputies may defect to GANA in coming days, while some

may be lured back to ARENA with financial incentives.  GANA has

received private messages of support from President Funes, but the

group is adamant it retains its ARENA-style center-right

orientation.  End Summary.

2. (SBU) PolCouns met November 17 with former ARENA Deputies

Guillermo Gallegos and Mario Tenorio.  Gallegos, who led ARENA's

legislative bloc in the 2006-2009 Assembly is now the leader of the

breakaway group called GANA, the Grand Alliance for National Unity.

Tenorio leads GANA's twelve deputies in the Assembly.

3. (C) Gallegos said the twelve had broken from ARENA not because

of an ideological quarrel but in order to force a change in ARENA

leadership.  He and Tenorio were critical of ARENA's lack of

direction since it lost the March 2009 presidential election.

Former President (1989-94) Alfredo Cristiani (1989-94) had assumed

leadership of ARENA's executive board (COENA) on an interim basis

through October.  Gallegos believes Cristiani is attempting to stay

in control of COENA as a way to protect himself from charges

brought in Spain for his alleged role in the 1989 Jesuit murders.

Gallegos said ARENA had, during twenty years in government, turned

into a party with distinct groups loyal to current and former

presidents.  Gallegos and Tenorio believe all four former ARENA

presidents must step down from positions of authority in the party.

Gallegos denied that GANA was operating under the direction of

former President Saca.  Indeed, Gallegos said Saca's recent public

comments critical of the breakaway deputies had "injured" him,

since he and Saca had a previously close relationship.

4. (C) Gallegos said GANA's preferred option was to return to ARENA

once sufficient changes in party leadership had taken place.  "Plan

A," Gallegos said, was by far their preferred option.  However, he

said, GANA is prepared to form its own new party (or take over an

existing, smaller party) and compete in 2012 legislative and

municipal elections (Plan B).  He noted that several ARENA mayors

had recently joined the ranks of GANA, suggesting the group's

support is broadening.  Gallegos said "Plan C," joining up with an

existing conservative party, probably the (conservative,

opportunistic) National Conciliation Party (PCN) was not an

attractive option but a possibility.  He joked that he could not

rule out "Plan D," i.e., getting out of politics altogether.

5. (C) Gallegos said he expected two or three more deputies might

soon move from ARENA to GANA.  At the same time, he said, some

Salvadoran business interests were offering financial incentives to

a few of GANA's twelve deputies and might succeed in luring them

back to ARENA.  Gallegos said President Funes had privately

expressed support for GANA's twelve deputies -- Gallegos said Funes

had all but "adopted" them -- but did not want to publicly align

himself with GANA.  Gallegos said that while GANA's twelve deputies

and others remained loyal to ARENA's core beliefs, he said he could

conceive of an alliance between GANA and the "Friends of Mauricio"

movement that supported Funes' candidacy.  Unlike the (left-wing)

FMLN, he said, the Friends of Mauricio (now called the Citizen

Movement for Change) is moderate and centrist.

6. (C) Gallegos said GANA had voted with the FMLN on the 2010 GOES

budget and other issues to garner necessary support to gain

representation in the National Assembly leadership.  However, he

said, GANA will not always vote with the FMLN.  He dismissed

criticism that the twelve deputies had betrayed voter intentions by

leaving ARENA after being elected as representatives of that party.

Assembly rules, Gallegos said, explicitly allow deputies to change

allegiance once elected.  Gallegos said none of the GANA deputies

had felt threatened.  On the contrary, he was pleased with public

expressions of support by rank-and-file ARENA supporters.

7. (C) Comment: While ARENA's meltdown has had the dramatic flair

of a Latin American telenovela, Gallegos and Tenorio privately

project a calm, deliberate air that suggests they understand the

gravity of ARENA's situation.  While it is too early to predict if

GANA will ultimately return to ARENA or continue an independent,

center-right path, what is clear is that President Funes' 2009

victory and ARENA's defeat kicked off a process of soul searching

and reassessment of the party's direction.  As for President Funes,

ARENA's divisions represent more of a distraction than a threat:

none of GANA's members have suddenly aligned themselves with the

FMLN's more extremist goals, and Funes will continue to enjoy

support for moderate proposals from both GANA and ARENA.

BLAU

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