ARENA TABS ZABLAH AS VP TO VIE FOR CENTER VOTE
Publicado el 28 de Junio de 2011
id: 173886
date: 10/15/2008 22:21
refid: 08SANSALVADOR1187
origin: Embassy San Salvador
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08SANSALVADOR1088|08SANSALVADOR827
header:
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSN #1187 2892221
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 152221Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0189
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001187
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ES
SUBJECT: ARENA TABS ZABLAH AS VP TO VIE FOR CENTER VOTE
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 1088
B. SAN SALVADOR 827 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary: The (center-right, pro-U.S.) ARENA party
named Arturo Zablah as its candidate for Vice President, to
run alongside Rodrigo Avila in the March 15, 2009 election.
Zablah is an independent businessman who served as Minister
of Economy (1989-1993) under President Cristiani. Press
speculation says that Zablah would have power over economic
policy, which he denies. Zablah's addition to the ticket is
a clear sign that ARENA is trying to attract moderate voters,
and close the gap with the (left-wing) FMLN's Mauricio Funes
in recent polls. End Summary.
2. (C) After months of speculation, ARENA Presidential
candidate Rodrigo Avila announced Arturo Zablah as his
running mate October 9. ARENA formally nominated him on
October 12. Avila denied as recently as September 16 that
Zablah would be his running mate (ref A). The announcement
comes on the heels of the Central American University's
Public Opinion Institute's (IUDOP's) release of its latest
poll, which shows Mauricio Funes, the FMLN candidate, ahead
of Avila by nearly 15 points.
3. (C) Salvadoran daily La Prensa Grafica reported October 10
that Zablah agreed to be Avila's running mate under several
conditions, including control of El Salvador's economic
policy, a reorganization of the Court of Accounts (Note:
roughly equivalent to our Government Accountability Office.
End Note.), and the elimination of value-added tax for
medicine. However, Zablah has publicly denied joining the
ticket with any preconditions. In an interview published in
La Prensa Grafica on October 11, he shot down the newspaper's
prior claim, and said that at this juncture, he does not know
over which parts of the government he would hold power.
4. (C) No members of ARENA's National Executive Council
(COENA) were present at the October 9 press conference, an
attempt to showcase Avila as ARENA's sole leader. There were
also some notable absences when ARENA presented Zablah as its
Vice Presidential candidate on October 12. Former Salvadoran
President Armando Calderon Sol opted not to attend the event,
demonstrating some of the continuing tensions within the
party. Calderon Sol explained to the media that he was
"completely in agreement with Arturo Zablah," and his absence
was due to party statutes, which dictate that former
presidents can only participate in COENA meetings every two
months. However, current Salvadoran President Elias Antonio
"Tony" Saca did attend.
5. (C) Zablah, a Georgia Tech graduate, is owner and director
of Salvadoran furniture and mattress manufacturer Capri. He
served in the Cristiani government as Minister of Economy and
later as Presidential Commissioner for International Trade
Negotiations. Zablah had explored the prospect of a run for
the Salvadoran Presidency with the support of up to three
small, centrist Salvadoran parties (ref B), but abandoned
that pursuit as it was impossible to form a meaningful
coalition among them.
6. (C) Oscar Santamaria, former Minister of Justice
(1989-1991) and Minister of the Presidency of the Republic
(1992-1994) under President Cristiani, as well as Minister of
Foreign Affairs (1994-1995) in the Calderon Sol
administration, and now foreign policy advisor to the Avila
campaign, told PolCouns October 13 he believed the Zablah
nomination would represent a turning point in Avila's
campaign. He said it was a concrete demonstration that ARENA
under Avila will work with those outside ARENA, regardless of
party affiliation. He said he hoped including Zablah on the
ticket would help the Avila campaign attract undecided,
moderate voters who have until now been willing to consider
the FMLN's Mauricio Funes.
7. (C) Comment: Zablah's selection is controversial within
ARENA, as some of his personal views break with ARENA
positions. For example, in the past, he has advocated
undoing dollarization and returning to the Colon, and has
argued for substantial increases to both pensions and the
minimum wage. Plus, only a few months have passed since
Zablah flirted with running for President with a coalition of
other parties. However, he does appeal to the center, where
ARENA badly needs help. The addition of Zablah can only help
Avila's campaign. San Salvador's Universidad Tecnologica's
(UTEC's) upcoming poll, due out by the end of October, should
give an indication of the Zablah's effect on the race.
GLAZER
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