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POTENTIAL THIRD FORCE IN THE SALVADORAN ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE
Publicado el 28 de Junio de 2011
C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001943
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ES
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL THIRD FORCE IN THE SALVADORAN ELECTORAL
LANDSCAPE
Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
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SUMMARY:
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1. (U) Former ARENA party Economy Minister Arturo Zablah is
heading up a center-left alliance which may serve as a
launching pad for a run at El Salvador's presidency in 2009.
Following nearly a year of meetings and alliance building
with politicians, academics and civil society
representatives, Zablah unveiled his plan of government this
month. In it, he identifies what he sees as the failures of
nearly two decades of successive ARENA administrations and
his plan of action to address these failures. Zablah hopes
to capture the support of centrist voters that are
increasingly unhappy with the polarization of the country's
political arena and not strongly attracted to either ARENA or
the FMLN. Zablah, a businessman and seasoned politician,is
clearly interested in a role either as a presdential
candidate or a power broker. He has yetto formalize a
relationship with an existing poliical party, but he seems
to feel that his movemet can build sufficient momentum to
bring a party possibly the FDR, to him. Though it is early
i the political season, a Zablah run -- even an unsccessful
one -- could significantly impact the contry's political
landscape.
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A New Alliance
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2. (U) Arturo Zablah, the patriarch of a powerful Salvadoran
business clan, is heading a broad-based effort to create what
he claims is a centrist alternative to El Salvador's existing
political parties. Zablah, the former Minister of the
Economy under the ARENA Presidency of Armando Calderon Sol,
is the driving force behind the "Alliance for Change," a
center-left political movement that is attempting to rally
civil society and the professional class behind an effort to
transform the Salvadoran political landscape.
3. (U) Zablah's political platform, "Towards Sustainable
Development in El Salvador," is effectively a plan of
government. This tract, a widely-circulated pamphlet that
the group debuted at a rally in September attended by nearly
2,000 people, identifies seven principal problems facing El
Salvador, ranging from delinquency and organized crime to
corruption, impunity, political polarization, unemployment,
fiscal irresponsibility, and environmental damage. In
response to these problems, he offers a range of social,
political and economic strategies. These include the
creation of an independent electoral authority; proposals to
eliminate government and police corruption; a stronger focus
on health, education and housing issues; pension reform; a
larger government role in promoting small business and
microenterprise; tax reform including removing the value
added tax on food and medicine; and an analysis of the impact
of the 2001 dollarization of the economy.
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Zablah on Zablah
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4. (C) On September 18, Political Counselor and Deputy met
with Zablah and his public relations spokesman, Carlos Vega.
Zablah opened the meeting with a summary of the main tenants
of his political program. He argued that the FMLN is
inherently unable to reform and has painted itself into a
corner by preaching an ideology that it now cannot distance
itself from. He opined that that the FMLN cannot win this
election alone, and that any electoral chance it has lies in
coalition with someone else. Zablah commented that the FMLN
faces an insurmountable hurdle in that the Salvadoran lower
class is inherently conservative and genuinely fears the sort
of radical change that the FMLN has been threatening for
years. He also concluded that the average Salvadoran values
the strong bilateral relationship with the U.S., and fears
that if the FMLN gains power, the relationship would
deteriorate to the detriment of Salvadorans living in the
U.S. (Note: Though he didn't directly say it, it was clear
that he meant an FMLN victory would mark the end of Temporary
Protected Status (TPS) for Salvadorans. End note.)
5. (C) The conversation also included some interesting
comments on public security. Zablah noted that immigration
to the U.S., resulting disintegration of the family
structure, and lack of viable economic prospects are driving
El Salvador's spiraling crime rate. He discussed a series of
steps, each designed to attack a specific problem such as
delinquency and street gangs. He argued that although none
is sufficient in and of itself, together they could well add
up to progress against the complex social dynamics dampening
El Salvador's future prospects. In an aside, Zablah stated
that the national civilian police (PNC) is riddled with
corruption and incompetence, citing the "fact" that PNC chief
Rodrigo Avila owns a private security firm represents an
"enormous, unacceptable conflict of interest." (Note: Though
Avila divested himself of his interest in his security firm
when he returned to government service, the allegations of
conflict of interest persist. End Note.)
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The Numbers May Not Lie
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6. (C) Zablah has obviously given serious thought to
electoral dynamics. He summed up El Salvador's electoral
arithmetic as follows: Of some 3.8 million potential voters,
800,000 will not vote; a million represent the hard-core
supporters of ARENA and the FMLN, leaving roughly two million
votes in play. Zablah stated that he is confident he could
get enough of those votes to become the third force in the
electoral calculus. He argues that if a second round of
balloting is Zablah vs. ARENA, the FMLN will desperately
support him in order to keep ARENA out of power. If the
tables are turned, ARENA does the same. Either way, he plays
a role.
7. (U) Zablah may not be far off the mark. Early polling
data suggests that ARENA is vulnerable on economic issues,
crime, and corruption. An August 2007 poll conducted by La
Prensa Grafica, one of the country's two major daily
newspapers, showed ARENA support at the Presidential level at
only 27%, and the FMLN with not quite 17%, leaving a majority
of the population undecided as to whether or not to vote and
for whom. Though the election is over a year away, and the
parties have yet to select their standard bearers, the data
suggests that much of the center is indeed up for grabs.
8. (C) In a separate meeting between Emboffs and the
Democratic Revolutionary Front (FDR), a center-left FMLN
splinter group, Faction Chief Julio Hernandez stated that his
party is actively considering offering the Presidential spot
on its ticket to Zablah. It remains to be seen if the offer
will actually be made or accepted.
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Comment
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9. (C) Zablah comes across as organized, well-informed,
confident, and genuine. Though encouraged by the progress he
has made thus far in terms of resonating with the public and
putting his movement on the political map, he is still in the
exploratory stages of putting together a formal candidacy,
let alone a political party. He noted that if he has not
built serious momentum in the next few months, and if it
looks as though success is not in the cards, he will likely
cut his losses and quit. In the meantime, the movement is
focusing on building support and recognition with
professional groups and academics while considering the
possibility of joining up with an existing party such as the
FDR to avoid the hassles and hurdles of forming a new party.
10. (C) Zablah seems sincere when he claims that his
principal aim is incorporating civil society and the
professional classes into the Salvadoran political spectrum.
In so doing, he hopes to open up additional political space
and force both ARENA and the FMLN to be more accountable to
the Salvadoran electorate. By all appearances, Zablah has so
far gone over well with civil society, the universities, and,
perhaps most importantly, the press. If his "brand" matures
and he perseveres into the electoral cycle, Zablah could
become a sought-after alliance partner and/or deal broker.
Glazer
