ARENA: FIVE CANDIDATES SURVIVE FIRST CUT

id: 140118

date: 2/5/2008 19:36

refid: 08SANSALVADOR147

origin: Embassy San Salvador

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination: 08SANSALVADOR36

header:

VZCZCXYZ0000

PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0147 0361936

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

P 051936Z FEB 08

FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8972

INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000147

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2018

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ES

SUBJECT: ARENA: FIVE CANDIDATES SURVIVE FIRST CUT

REF: SAN SALVADOR 36

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and

 (d)

1. (SBU) Summary: ARENA's executive board announced the names

of five candidates who will continue in the party's

competition to become ARENA's nominee for 2009 presidential

elections.  In a surprise to many observers, ARENA founding

member Hugo Barrera was not among those moving on to the next

phase of the contest.  End Summary.

2. (SBU) On February 4, COENA (ARENA's Executive Board)

announced that five of the eighteen candidates for the

party's presidential nomination would continue to compete in

the second phase of the selection process.  During the next

three weeks, the five remaining candidates will travel around

El Salvador and invite ARENA members, business and industrial

interests, religious groups and the general public to their

own formal and informal events.  During the third week of

February, COENA expects to select three of the five

candidates to travel around El Salvador and participate in

televised debates and other events organized by the party.

Then on March 15, nearly 3,000 party officials will vote to

select the party's candidate for the Salvadoran Presidency.

3. (SBU) The five remaining candidates are Vice President Ana

Vilma de Escobar; former Foreign Minister Francisco "Pancho"

Lainez; former Legal Advisor to the President Luis Mario

Rodriguez; former National Civilian Police (PNC) Director

Rodrigo Avila; and ARENA founding member Eduardo Barrientos.

4. (C) The surprise in COENA's February 4 announcement was

reducing the number of names for the next phase of selection

to five from the expected six, and eliminating the name most

observers in and outside the party expected to see: Hugo

Barrera, founding member of the party, successful

businessman, and former head of the Salvadoran Port and

Airport Authority (CEPA).  Sources close to Barrera darkly

told PolCouns February 5 they suspected -- but could not

prove -- this was due to fears among President Saca's inner

circle, including Security Minister Figueroa, that they would

have little control over a Barrera candidacy and that

Barrera's strong support among ARENA's rank and file would

catapult him to the front of the pack.

5. (SBU) In an informal poll of listeners on the popular "A

Primera Hora" radio program February 5, listeners were asked

whom they expected would ultimately become ARENA's candidate.

 Rodrigo Avila and Pancho Lainez were effectively tied,

chosen by 31 and 30 percent of respondents, respectively.

The rest of the candidates trailed considerably.

6. (C) Comment: The only surprise in COENA's February 4

announcement was its reduction to five the number of

candidates that will move forward and the absence of Hugo

Barrera, though we doubt he could have mounted an effective

campaign against the FMLN's Funes.

7. (C) Comment continued: The anecdotal results from "A

Primera Hora" match what we hear from San Salvador's

chattering classes.  They also match the views of President

Saca, who told CDA February 5 that he expected either Avila

or Lainez to be ARENA's candidate.  Few believe VP Escobar or

Barrientos will become ARENA's candidate.  While Rodriguez

benefits from his association with President Saca, he is

handicapped by his tender age (35) and the fact that he was

never a party activist.  Both Avila and Lainez benefit from

strong name recognition and significant support from power

centers inside ARENA.

BUTLER

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