EARLY SPECULATION OVER 2009 FMLN PRESIDENTIAL TICKET

id: 105415
date: 4/23/2007 17:13
refid: 07SANSALVADOR765
origin: Embassy San Salvador
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 06SANSALVADOR2008
header:
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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0765/01 1131713
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231713Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5981
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0136
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000765
 
SIPDIS
 
SIPDIS
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017
TAGS: ES, PGOV, PREL
SUBJECT: EARLY SPECULATION OVER 2009 FMLN PRESIDENTIAL TICKET.
 
REF: A. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2008
 
     B. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2508
     C. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2972
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY and Comment:  Notwithstanding ongoing media
speculation regarding possible FMLN presidential candidates
for the 2009 elections, moderate FMLN Legislative Assembly
Deputy Hugo Martinez recently outlined to poloff that his
party has settled on television commentator Mauricio Funes as
their 2009 presidential candidate, with the FMLN's
Legislative Assembly delegation chief Salvador Sanchez Ceren
filling the vice presidential slot.  If Martinez's assertion
is true, the choice appears to be a carefully-calculated move
to broaden the party's appeal beyond its loyal activist base,
which has so far been unsuccessful in efforts to achieve
national office.  In our view, it is unlikely that the FMLN
leadership has picked its presidential candidate this early.
However, a battle still looms ahead between those who want to
select a "kinder, gentler face" and the Communist Party
hardliners who favor one of their own.  END SUMMARY and
Comment.
 
2. (C)  All three of the FMLN's presidential candidates in
postwar presidential elections have been former guerrilla
combatants from the five political-military groups that
formed the FMLN in 1980, and the FMLN has lost every such
election by margins of 22 to 24 percent.  During 2006, debate
began to emerge within the party's leadership regarding the
advisability of choosing a fresh face from outside the ranks
of party activists for 2009, in hopes of broadening the
ticket's appeal among the electorate beyond its traditional
constituency.  Recent media reports have highlighted
speculation regarding possible FMLN candidates.  Popular FMLN
Santa Tecla Mayor and former National Mayors Association
(COMURES) President Oscar Ortiz has been conspicuously absent
from most such lists.  Ortiz, who was narrowly edged out by
the late Schafik Handal in his bid to be the party's 2004
presidential candidate, angered the party's hardliner
leadership in mid-2006 by unilaterally voicing his interest
in another possible presidential bid.  FMLN San Salvador
Mayor Dr. Violeta Menjivar, while still publicly mentioned
among possible 2009 presidential candidates, has lost ground
politically since inheriting the capital's near-insoluble
problems of crime, poverty, overpopulation, and crumbling
infrastructure.  Soyapango Mayor Carlos "El Diablito" Ruiz, a
longtime Communist Party stalwart, has shown interest in
running, but his trademark military garb emblazoned with red
stars and the Cuban flag savors too much of the past for him
to have serious prospects as a national candidate.  Party
Chairman Medardo Gonzalez (a.k.a. "Comandante Milton Mendez")
appears to have little interest or support in running.
 
3. (C)  Mauricio Funes began his career in broadcast
journalism during the nation's civil war in 1986, with a
morning talk show on Channel 12 that served primarily as a
forum for left-of-center FMLN sympathizers (reftel B).  Funes
was fired without notice in 2005 by Channel 12's Mexican
parent company, which cited low ratings for his show.
Although many leftists charged that Funes's firing had been
politically-motivated, other political observers and members
of the media responded that Funes had misused the show to
promote his own political agenda, and that he also had a
widespread reputation of being overbearing and difficult to
work with.  Funes has since reestablished himself with a show
on the Megavision network's Channel 21, and he also serves as
an occasional correspondent for the Spanish-language version
of CNN.  In 2003 Funes angled for an offer to become the
FMLN's 2004 presidential candidate, but was reportedly
rebuffed with the admonishment that he should first join the
party, and that in any event the VP spot would be the very
best that might be possible under any circumstances.  (Note:
Prior to the FMLN's 2003 selection of Handal as its
candidate, internal ARENA party polls showed that Funes might
beat an ARENA candidate by approximately 10 percent.  End
note.)  The once-divorced Funes recently married the
Brazilian Embassy's Cultural Affairs Officer Wanda Pignato,
whose reportedly close ties to higher political circles in
Brazil has led to speculation and rumors that Funes might be
"Lula's candidate".
 
4. (C)  Ceren, a Popular Liberation Forces (FPL) guerrilla
leader who fought under the nom de guerre "Comandante Leonel
Gonzalez", will likely wield the real power should the FMLN
prevail in 2009.  Former FMLN Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) Magistrate Julio Hernandez, now National Coordinator of
the new Revolutinary Democratic Front (FDR), has long
asserted to poloff that with all moderate voices within the
FMLN now expelled or otherwise silenced, the party might
 
explore running a moderate-sounding figurehead for president
in 2009, with a reliable member of the old guard in the
number-two slot to enforce discipline to the hardliners'
orthodox creed.  (See reftel C.)  The FMLN's veteran caudillo
and former Party Chairman Ceren is the perfect candidate to
fulfill such a role.
 
5. (C)  COMMENT:  After years of putting forward lackluster
candidates who remind most voters of the nation's painful and
bloody past, the FMLN may finally have learned its lesson.
With a more attractive candidate, likely financial backing
from Venezuela's Chavez (reftel A), and President Saca
struggling to address the nation's staggering violent crime,
the FMLN has greater expectations than ever before for 2009.
Still, nearly two years remain before the elections, and any
show of ideological independence or other misstep by Funes
between now and then could bring down the wrath of
hardliners, and lead to the political exile already
well-populated by those who have run afoul of the FMLN's
orthodox faithful.
Glazer

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