MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY BECOMES THIRD DECLARED CANDIDATE

id: 124778
date: 10/4/2007 22:47
refid: 07SANSALVADOR2000
origin: Embassy San Salvador
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 07SANSALVADOR1485|07SANSALVADOR1959
header:
VZCZCXYZ0277
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #2000 2772247
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 042247Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8090
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY


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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002000
 
SIPDIS
 
SIPDIS
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ES
SUBJECT: MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY BECOMES THIRD DECLARED
CANDIDATE
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 01959
     B. SAN SALVADOR 01485
 
Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler under E.O. 12958 reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d)
 
 1.(U) Rene Figueroa, El Salvador's Minister of Public
Security, has announced his possible candidacy for the ARENA
party's nomination for President in the 2009 election.
Figueroa made his announcement at the 2007 ARENA General
Assembly held on September 29.  His statement closely
followed a similar announcement by Ana Vilma de Escobar, El
Salvador's Vice President on September 27 (ref A).  President
Saca publicly reiterated that there are will be no
pre-candidates announced until May 2008.
 
2.(C) ARENA Advisor Guillermo Wellman has told us that other
potential ARENA candidates include Minister of Foreign
Affairs Francisco Esteban Lainez, Minister of Public Works
Jorge Nieto, Vice President of Campaigns for ARENA's
Executive Council Hugo Barrera, and President of the National
Administration of Aqueducts and Sewers Cesar Funes.  Other
ARENA sources indicate that businessman and longtime party
activist Roberto Murray Meza is receiving strong
consideration for the presidential slot.
 
3.(U) The September 29 ARENA Assembly also reelected all the
members of the Executive Council (COENA); however, some of
the members will be shifting portfolios.
 
4.(C) COMMENT: A long-time ARENA stalwart, Figueroa is
considered by many to have earned the opportunity to head the
ticket.  Others within the party, including former President
Armando Calderon Sol, have publicly expressed trepidation
about a Figueroa candidacy.  One member of the COENA inner
circle, as well as several campaign followers, have indicated
to Poloff that the upper ranks of ARENA feel that while
Figueroa would be an excellent President, he lacks the
personal charisma to connect with voters in the rough and
tumble "camisa sudada" (literally sweaty shirt) campaign
style favored by President Saca and others.
 
5.(C) Moreover, Figueroa is seen by some as a hard-core ARENA
conservative, likely to alienate centrist voters and thus
exacerbate the polarization of Salvadoran politics in the
2009 election, potentially providing an opportunity to a
(Mauricio) Funes FMLN candidacy.  This, combined with
Figueroa's strong association with the politically-difficult
public security and justice portfolio, let alone
controversial events such as the Suchitoto confrontation (ref
B) and arrests, leads some ARENA members to prefer a
candidate carrying less political baggage into the campaign
trail.  END COMMENT.
 
Glazer

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